Prediction of Stock Market Indices

Prediction of Stock Market Indices-Using SAS Author—B. Siddhartha Reddy Abstract— The SAS © System has a powerful suite of tools for analyzing and forecasting data taken over a selected time period. The paper concentrates more on Stock Market (NSE-Nifty, India) & its prediction, by and large a risky venture. Knowledgeable investors base their predictions either on the basis of Fundamental Analysis, or Technical Analysis, or both. But most of the investors rely on the tips given by the experts for Stock Market Predictions.However there are many such models available such as Interrupted Time Series, Auto Regression (AR), Exponential Smoothening, Moving Average (MA), and Distributed Lags Analysis. The procedures FORECAST, ARIMA process will be illustrated. analysis, traditional time series analysis and machine learning methods. The analyzing and predicting of the indices is in one line-To reap returns while investing on the index derivatives, Index derivatives provide in vestors the exposure to price movements of entire indices through a single futures or options contract.Using index options, a very interesting kind of â€Å"portfolio insurance† can be obtained, whereby an investor gets paid only if the market index drops. If one does not want to bear index fluctuations in the coming weeks, then the index futures or index options can be used to reduce (or even eliminate) the consequent index exposure. This is far more convenient than distress selling of the underlying equity in the portfolio. Thus, such prediction of indices would help the investor to play safe in the dynamic volatile market arena. Analyzing What?Analyzing the indices as in NIFTY MIDCAP 50, one can determine various trends the market has seen on day-to-day basis-the process which includes determining the trends underneath the data series (at a stretch of 13 years from 19972010) brought down from various secondary sources. Moreover, these trends can be used to identify the pat terns in the series and thus laying the foundation for forecasting adopting a couple of iterative processes which will be explained in the following sections. Details of the data: Observations-3282, Type-Daily Tools used: SAS © and Eviews. II.DATA FEATURES AND EXAMPLE The first step in time series analysis, or any good statistical analysis for that matter, is to plot the data. However, unless the user knows what to look for in the plots this exercise is futile. Features of interest usually include: Trend – an overall long term upward or downward movement in the data. Do we handle this by differencing the data or fitting a low order polynomial in time? Seasonality – a component of the series repeats periodically, for example, retail sales have a tendency to be high around November and December and lower near the first of the year.Do we look at seasonal differences or put in seasonal â€Å"indicator variables†? Keywords— forecasting, prediction, stock mar ket prediction Time series analysis. I. INTRODUCTION Stock market is the market for securities where organized issuance and trading of Stocks takes place either through exchanges or over-the-counter in electronic or physical form. It plays an important role in channelizing capital from the investors to the business houses, which consequently leads to the availability of funds for business expansion.Determination of stock price considers that market is supreme and it discounts everything (economical, political and all related factors). It presumes that all the investors behave rationally and the value of the asset is estimated based on future expectations. Hence, with every new information, the future expectation of the market is liable to change and consequently the stock prices. As the new information is erratic in nature so it influences the price in a random way. The purpose of this trend analysis is to enable the organizations/individuals improve their knack of trading their ind ex options/futures in the available markets (NSE, BSE).The SAS technology helps the organization/individual to speed up the process of investing in this second’s market (changing over a period of seconds) and timely reducing the loss at all the levels in a trading process thus leveraging their portfolios. Why Analyze? Stock Market Investments are subjected to market risks and the returns are variable in nature because it is an uncertain existence. Hence Stock Market Prediction is not a guaranteed one. It is based on certain analyses linked to the Macro & Micro economic factors or variables such as demand & supply.There are certain other analyses available such as fundamental Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 1 Variability – is the variation additive or multiplicative (in which case we might want to analyze the logarithms of the data). Special events – was there a stri ke sometime during the period? Does the time period include the dotcom bubble and the recession in 2008? Is there an effect of the same or some other impingements?The features of the data determine which procedures are appropriate and identify those that are not appropriate. There are statistical checks available in the system for deciding, for example, the best approach for modeling the trend. As an example, Fig 1 shows the change in the Index values of NIFTY MIDCAP 50 in INDIA. While not exactly steady, we can see an overall increase/decrease in market with time. If we are thinking in terms of polynomials, it seems that at least a cubic polynomial might be needed to approximate the curvature in the historic data plot.The flexibility of high degree polynomials allows them to fit historic data well, but becomes a liability in forecasting in that such polynomials can, by their inherent flexibility, produce unreasonable increases or decreases as they are projected out into the future. Having checked with the seasonality and stationary test of the data, the logarithmic value of the data CLOSE (closing point of NIFTY) is taken and rechecked for the stationary test. If the data is a stationary, then the data is ready to model into a time series. The stationarity tests are done by using the Time Series Analysis in SAS, preferably The Fullers Test. Fig. Log Transformed Flows (Data Series: Obs – 3282 Type – Daily) The accuracy of the above forecast shown in fig 2 can be viewed in the fig 3 which shows the difference of the actual values and the predicted values of the market by considering the entire data of 13years at once and later on the same difference in case of the splitted graph. Fig 3 shows the statistics of differences in forecasting of the data: the graph (trend) with split and without split. Fig. 3 Differencing of Forecasted Data with Split & Without Split Thus, from Fig 3 it is evident that the data series has to be split as per the trends an d seasonality available.Having inspected the trends available in the above data series, it is found that there are various trends in the market index (closing) and had resulted in the 10 splits. The entire project has been verified while considering each and every split that shows some or the other trend and/or the impact of global impacts such as the Dotcom bubble and followed by the Recession in the year of 2008. The above impingements referring the dotcom bubble and recession are clearly observed globally and their impacts on the Indian Market are analyzed and assessed.It can be inferred that though Indian markets have shown a slight drift in its market during the above impacts, the overall effect of the recession on India is far negligible compared to the other developed countries (in reference to the BPO sector: India at its best) and we can say India along with other Pan-Asia countries have stood back from such wallops. III. RELATED WORK The Time Series Prediction analyzes his toric data and attempts to approximate future values of a time series as a linear combination of these historic data.In econometrics there are two basic types of time series forecasting: univariate (simple regression) and multivariate (multivariate regression). These types of regression models are the most common tools used in econometrics to predict time series. The way they are applied in practice is that firstly a set of factors that influence Fig. 2 Log Transformed Forecast Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 2 (or more specific is assumed that influence) the series under prediction is identified.These factors are the explanatory variables xi of the prediction model. Methodology: The methodology includes ? Collecting the Secondary data from the market sources such as National Stock Exchange (Nifty). ? Checking the seasonality in the data series (if any) and minimizing the same for an ac curate prediction. ? Claiming the data series to be precise – i. e. checking whether the data series obtained is stationary and raising the steps to make it a stationary series. Having checked with the stationarity, the data would be crisp and apparently ready to fetch a good forecast. Subjecting the resultant series into various models such as AR, MA etc. ? Forecasting the index and plotting the change in behavior of the market indices which is a real time analysis. This will help analysts/investors to make good and accurate investment decisions. Limitations: ? Access to the market’s real time data would be time variant and a slight change in the market may change the trend. ? Time series forecasting heavily depends upon the availability of the data. Long time series give the flexibility of verifying alternative models and choose the best. Exact modeling needs lots of experience and trend identification will be heavily depend upon this experience. ? Though the study g ives a trend analysis it might not work in a uniform way for all the investors, therefore the behavior of the investor also plays a vital role in the modeling. ? The resultant analysis may work only for a specific period and may always subject to change depend on other externalities which will impact the economy of the country. ? Limited time may or may not fetch good results in implementation of the analysis since share market cannot be cracked in the real time. Fig. Forecasting System The Model Building and The Forecasting Process IV. PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS The Performance analysis is been considered for the 10th split of the above data series since the entire paper concentrates on the Real-Time analysis of the NIFTY market, while comparing the predicted values with that of the Real-Time Index values and the same difference of Prediction is shown in the below Excel table. Fig 5 shows the graph (LCLOSE) for a time period of July 09 – Feb 10 and is not stationary. It can be det ermined by just viewing its trend and moreover the data is not moving in and out of the MEAN at equal intervals.However, the series clearly shows the trend with a non-stationary series. Such a trend does require a differencing while fitting into the model. Fig. 5 Log Transformed Close Values (LCLOSE) Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 3 The stationary series (ref fig 5) is best fitted into the AR Model (Auto Regressive Model) and is fitted for eight lags. Fig 5 shows AR (8, 1) since the parameter estimates show that: The probability is 0. 221 which says that the series (LCLOSE) is more significant at lag 8 and the coefficient of the standard error is almost zero (0. 0839) as obtained during the evaluation of the above model leading to the best fit than any other model. Fig 6 shows the statistics of fit of LCLOSE graph with RSquare as 0. 961 which says that the series is been fitted into th e model with the 96. 1% of confidence with the adjusted R-Square of 0. 958 (almost same) and with the mean absolute error being almost zero thus leading to the best fit. Fig. 6 Statistics of Fit Fig. 8 Predictions and Data OverlaidThe predictions of LCLOSE in fig 8 are listed for the next 6 days: 7. 8190 to 7. 8274 are the forecasted values of the NIFTY closing for the dates above 24th of Feb 2010 that is for the real time of the future. These values are checked with the real time closing values of the NIFTY MIDCAP 50 on the following days. Fig 9 shows the predicted values and real time values of the same. Fig. 9 Predicted Vs Real Time Values The reason for this best fit of almost 96. 1% is due to the upward trend with the elevation of the data series which could make the prediction more accurate as it is a stationary.Fig. 7 96. 1% Confidence Interval Forecast (LCLOSE) From fig 9 it is evident that the predicted value of the NIFTY MIDCAP 50 as 7. 8190 and can be arrived at 2487. 416 (anti-log of Predicted) which has just 4. 2167 points of difference with the real time i. e. 2483. 20 which is a secondary data downloaded from the NSE site. The real time values for the rest of the periods are written manually and the difference is checked accordingly. V. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ? The above forecasts of the time series models clearly show the behavior pattern of the market (NIFTY MIDCAP 50) in the near future.One may or may not find a difference in the values of predicted to that of the real time. Fig 7 is obtained on this day of 24th Mar 2010 (the updated data) and the values of the above forecasted graph are fed into the excel sheet to calculate the anti-log of the same in order to come up with the predicted values for the NIFTY closing. ? There is always a possibility of certain standard errors in case of the time series analysis which may be found due to the absence of the best fit models than which are fitted above. Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA.Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 4 ? Such and such above models namely AR do have some limitations which would result in an inaccurate prediction since these predicted values may sometimes have a huge difference with that of the real time values caused due to the external factors. These external factors can be: 1. 2. Policies implemented by the GOVERNMENT OF INDIA. Variation in the rates such as ? Interest Rates. ? Fluctuations of Indian Rupee with the impact of other currencies. ? Foreign Exchange Rates etc. Unforeseen issues such as : ?A sudden decline in the foreign markets. ? A variation in the chain of demand and supply. ? Sudden attack by the outlaws. 3. ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to take this opportunity to thank Prof. Prashobhan Palakkeel and Prof. Veena Bhat (faculties, IBS Bangalore) for their assistance in the concepts of Business Intelligence and statistical tools used in this research namely SAS 9. 1 & Eviews 6. 0; their ceaseless support has resulted in such a vulnerable & successful explore. This research paper would not been possible without the untiring support provided by my family and friends.The input and guidance provided by other faculties have been invaluable. I would like to extent my gratitude to all these people. REFERENCES [1] www. nse-india. com (NSE National Stock Exchange, India) as a secondary data source for Nifty daily. [2] http://www. statsoft. com/textbook/time-series-analysis/ [3] http:/webspace. qmul. ac. uk/dsgpollock/public_html/courses /tseries/1trends. pdf [4] www. nse-india. com/content/fo/fo_NIFTYMIDCAP50. htm [5] Brocklebank, J. C. and D. A. Dickey (2003) SAS for Forecasting Time Series, SAS Institute, Cary, N.C. [6] http://nseguide. com/press-releases/nse-index-weightsbased-on-nse-daily-bhav-copy/ [7] http://www. hkbu. edu. hk/~billhung/econ3600/application/a pp03/app03. html [8] http://webspace. qmul. ac. uk/dsgpollock/public_html/course s/tseries/8idntify. pdf [9] http://www. duke. edu/~rnau/411arim. htm â€Å"Model Selection is seldom Precise in Time Series modeling, because it’s An Art more Than a Science† Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 5

Damien Peter Parer

Damien Peter Parer (1 August 1912 – 17 September 1944) was an Australian war photographer. He became famous for his war photography of the Second World War, and was killed by Japanese machinegun fire at Peleliu, Palau. He married Elizabeth Marie Cotter on 23 March 1944, and his son, producer Damien Parer, was born posthumously. He was also the uncle of Australian politician Warwick Parer and film-maker David Parer. He was cinematographer for Australia's first Oscar winning film, Kokoda Front Line, an edition of the weekly newsreel, Cinesound Review which was produced by Ken Hall. Damien Parer was born at Malvern in Melbourne, the tenth child of Teresa and John Arthur Parer, a hotel manager on King Island, Tasmania. In 1923, he and his brother, Adrian, were sent as boarders to St Stanislaus' College in Bathurst and St. Kevin's College, Melbourne . He joined the school's camera club, and decided that he wanted to be a photographer, rather than a priest. However, finding a job as a photographer in depression-era Australia proved difficult, and so he resumed his education at St Kevin's in east Melbourne. While at this school he won a prize in a photographic competition run by the Melbourne newspaper, the Argus, and used the money to buy a Graflex camera used by professionals. Parer obtained an apprenticeship with Arthur Dickinson. He said later that he learnt most about photography from Dickinson and Max Dupain. He finished his apprenticeship in 1933 and, sometime later, obtained work with the director, Charles Chauvel, on the film Heritage, where he met and became friends with another up and coming filmmaker of the time, John Heyer. At the conclusion of that film, and with the help of Chauvel, he obtained work in Sydney, and so moved there in 1935. By World War II, Parer was experienced at photography and motion pictures, and was appointed as official movie photographer to the Australian Imperial Force (AIF). His first war footage was taken on HMAS Sydney after it had sunk the Italian cruiser Bartolomeo Colleoni. Soon after, he was aboard HMS Ladybird while it was bombarding the sea port of Bardia in Libya. His first experience at close quarters was during a troop advance at Derna. Parer filmed in Greece and in Syria, covering the action from aircraft, the deck of a ship and on the ground with the infantry. After Syria he travelled to Tobruk in August 1941 before covering the fighting in the Western desert. By mid-1942 Parer was in New Guinea ready to cover the fighting against the Japanese. During this phase of the war, he filmed some of his most famous sequences, some at Salamaua and, most notably, those used in Kokoda Front Line. This documentary won its producer, Ken G. Hall, an Academy Award for documentary film-making. Parer was killed by Japanese gunfire while filming a United States Marine advance in Peleliu on the island of Palau.

Comparison of B2B and B2C Companies - 1062 Words

Comparison of B2B and B2C Companies This report is a supply chain comparison between two companies in which one is a business-to-business (B2B) model company and the other is a business-to-consumers (B2C) model company. The comparison will be between the companies Wal-Mart and Grainger. Wal-Mart is a well-known conglomerate known around the world that is in the retail business that seeks to sell products to consumers at a significantly reduced discount compared to its rivals. Grainger sells supplies to different companies through the company s own website. First, let s start by distinguish between what a B2B company is and what a B2C company is. The definition of a business-to-business is when businesses sell products or services†¦show more content†¦Grainger supplies its business to a variety of businesses but sells primarily to industrial and commercial maintenance departments, contractors, and government customers. The company sells more 800,000 products so Grainger relies heavily on the use of more than 1,200 suppliers to fill this need. One interesting fact is that nearly 40% of their purchases are from random purchases from customers that rarely buy the same product more than once a year (Grainger 2006 Fact Book). So how does Grainger fulfill these needs and keep customers happy? Grainger operates in the United States by having 416 branches, 10 distribution centers, and its own website. What separates Grainger from competition is the fact that Grainger offers the best combination of product selection, local availab ility, and speed of delivery. In fact, 99 percent of customers receive their orders the very next day. Grainger recently launched a catalog in 2006 that contains more than 115,000 products. That is a staggering number of products available for customers and a lot of information for Grainger to be accountable for. 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Outrageous I Need Help with a Powerpoint Presentation Tips

Outrageous I Need Help with a Powerpoint Presentation Tips I Need Help with a Powerpoint Presentation - the Conspiracy Needless to say, you might need PowerPoint presentation help to create them, but you need nothing to fret about everything is significantly simpler than you believe. Few men and women can provide a presentation without notes. You might discover that you need to provide a presentation under certain conditions, where your prior experience is not as helpful. Many people that are not experienced in writing such presentations may discover that it's difficult, as they're unfamiliar with each and every template for academic presentation. An expert presentation maker will direct you through the procedure and make things clearer and simpler at any stage. If a person asks you what your presentation is all about, you should have the ability to explain it in under 45 seconds. 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John Milton Opens Paradise Lost Essay - 2170 Words

As John Milton opens Paradise lost with a brief explanation of his intent, he makes a very ambitious statement of his goal, claiming that his book would be sufficient means by which â€Å"[He might] assert Eternal Providence, / And justify the ways of God to men† (Paradise Lost 1.25-26). So the reader should treat his epic poem as the attempted justification that it is, and ask themselves this: does this argument successfully justify God’s ways? A key—perhaps even the key—part of Milton’s book, and therefore of his argument, is God’s behavior with regards to the fall, whether that be action or lack of action. Thus to succeed in his stated task, Milton must â€Å"justify† that behavior to his audience—Christians living in the aftermath of the fall. 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During Miltonâ⠂¬â„¢s writing years, he wrote many pamphlets based on political, religious, populism, and educational topics. However, Milton’sRead More Epic Characteristics of Paradise Lost Essay770 Words   |  4 PagesEpic Characteristics of Paradise Lost Paradise Lost is one of the finest examples of epic tradition in all of literature. In composing this work, John Milton was, for the most part, following in the manner of epic poets of past centuries. By knowing the background of epic characteristics and conventions, it is easy to trace their presence in Book I of Paradise Lost. One of the biggest questions that a reader must face is that of the hero; exactly who is the epic hero in the poemRead MoreSatan As A Hero And A Villain916 Words   |  4 PagesSatan as a Hero and a Villain (Analysis of Satan in John Milton’s Paradise Lost) John Milton created Paradise Lost out of twelve books of well constructed poetry. A poem depicting and going into detail of the story of Adam and Eve, man’s creation and fall. The poem focuses on the actions of one particular character, Satan. Milton introduces his readers to Satan in Book I as a hero, trying to get revenge against God for throwing him out of Heaven, being banished to Hell. But as Satan carries on withRead MoreA Discussion of Milton’s Theodicy in Paradise Lost745 Words   |  3 PagesWhat is free will? Milton explains in Paradise Lost that free will is the answer to the justification of Gods ways to man. There are three parts, or triangle, of theodicy, they are that God is all powerful, all good, yet there are still bad things that happen. Milton wrote to explain and justify why there are still bad things even though God is all good, and all powerful. Milton’s answer to this is that there is all good and all power, but the bad is not Godâ€℠¢s fault. Milton has three key ideas toRead MoreParadise Lost : A Satanic Hero?1585 Words   |  7 PagesMcCormick 14 April 2016 Paradise Lost: A Satanic Hero? While there have been many different studies done on the epic written by John Milton, his primary reason for writing Paradise Lost was to retell the story from the Bible regarding Adam and Eve. Although the epic runs alongside actual scripture in lots of ways, the aspect in which Milton characterizes the individuals in the story are far from that of the Bible’s form. Satan, in book II of Paradise Lost, is depicted by Milton as a being a rebelliousRead More Satan: The True Hero of Paradise Lost by Milton Essay1638 Words   |  7 PagesSatan: The True Hero of Paradise Lost by Milton The identity of the true protagonist in Paradise Lost is a mystery. One would gather that Milton, a Puritan, would have no problem casting God as the hero, and Satan as the antagonist. However, looking back in history, Milton saw that most epic heroes had conflicts that prevented them from accomplishing their goals. God and his Son have no conflict, and Adam’s story does not really begin until the Fall of Man. Therefore, Milton was forced to selectRead MoreAnalysis Of John Milton s The Of Paradise Lost 1122 Words   |  5 Pageshumankind could be considered heroic according to well-known author John Milton. Book IX of Paradise lost portrays this sense of heroism through the sins of Adam and Eve, but also creates a sense of controversy through the unexpected personality swap between Satan and of God. This literary work is a major contribution to biblical and literary history; therefore a reason why this work is still read today. The poem must turn tragic, and Milton asserts his intention to show this great fall is more heroic thanRead MoreWhat is Heaven without Hell? in Paradise Lost by John Milton1363 Words   |  6 Pages Paradise Lost by John Milton thrives off the implicit and explicit aspects of Hell offered by the narrator and the physical and psychological descriptions offered by various characters. Their separate perspectives coincide to expose the intentions of Milton and the purpose Hell serves in this epic poem. Each character adds a new element to the physical and psychological development of this alternative world. The narrator and Satan provide the greatest insight into the dynamics of this underworldRead MoreCritical Analysis Of Paradise Lost1224 Words   |  5 Pages In the epic poem Paradise Lost, author John Milton explores the familiar topics of Heaven and Hell, good and evil, God and Satan; but from a new and [for some] disturbing angle. Overflowing with an abundance of metaphors, extended similes, and countless other literary e lements, combined with a rather understanding—and at times, compassionate—tone, Milton challenges society’s comfortable position surrounding the terrible figure of Satan. He treads ever so warily among this topic, but nevertheless

Personal Story Waking and Sleeping Essay Example For Students

Personal Story Waking and Sleeping Essay I am constantly questioning whether my perceptions and sensations are real or simply projections of my imagination. I suffer from a rare condition where the distinction between my waking and sleeping life is not black and white; I generally describe it as two almost indistinguishable shades of grey. I have full control and memory of my dreams, but lack the understanding of knowing when Im dreaming. Recently I have realized that when I’m dreaming, I’m much less afraid to show my individual self, compared to when I’m experiencing ‘reality’. I believe this is because I’m not afraid to express myself the way I like when I can be sure that I wont be able to be judged by other people. A thought-provoking question arises from my illness – can something that is imagined be real? Most people believe that my illusions arent real, and carry no substance of real life. To these people, I ask them whether they have a faith or religion that they believe in, and if they do, they are quite adamant that theyre belief is real. They could believe that God could be anything; God could be a handful of soil, or a substance made of moonlight and hope, and if the person who held this belief accepts this as fact, then to that person it would be as real as the sun in the sky. This is what amazes me about the power of imagination. The mind has the power to choose what it sees, not the eyes. I used to be afraid of my illness not knowing when I’m awake or asleep and what is reality. But lately I have changed my mind on how I view my difference, as my imagination allows me to freely be who I want to be; myself, â€Å"unto thine own self be true†, without having to panic about whether the people around me will accept who I am. I find it hard to be myself in the ‘real world’. I want to be accepted like nearly all other people. I’m terrified at even the thought of rejection. This fear has eventually led to me finding myself bowing down to the dictator. The dictator makes me dress a certain way, act a certain way, and form certain beliefs. The dictator purposely makes me hate my individual differences, and cover them up with lies. This is a problem in the modern world – so many of us claim to live free lives, yet we fear being rejected. I remember someone once told me if you cant be yourself, then who are you? . I wish I were able to be myself in the real world, as at the moment this only happens in my imagined world. I can express my individuality without restrictions when I am dreaming as I dont fear the judgment that is tied to any decision I make when my eyes are open. This is the main reason why I have stopped looking for a cure for my condition, and find myself to be dreaming more often than when I am living reality. I think I am going to have to eventually make a choice between which world I live in, the imagined, or the ‘real’. This is because my dreams have started to occur while I’m awake, which causes me to be my true self in the presence of other people, something I’m unable to deal with due to my poor self-esteem – thank-you dictator. I like to think real life is alike to living in the city, and the dream world similar to nature. Dreams flow like a river, where there is no certain structure as to how things must happen. In real life, you have no choice but to conform to the chaos induced by the media and urbanisation, much like the busy streets of Melbourne. This makes me think that living my life all through my imagination seems perfect to me, I can do what I want, in an artistically free and formless way. Although these things seem to be exactly what I want, I dont think Im able to cast myself away from reality, even if it doesn’t want me to be myself. .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6 , .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6 .postImageUrl , .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6 .centered-text-area { min-height: 80px; position: relative; } .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6 , .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6:hover , .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6:visited , .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6:active { border:0!important; } .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6 .clearfix:after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; } .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6 { display: block; transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #95A5A6; } .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6:active , .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #2C3E50; } .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6 .centered-text-area { width: 100%; position: relative ; } .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6 .ctaText { border-bottom: 0 solid #fff; color: #2980B9; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0; padding: 0; text-decoration: underline; } .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6 .postTitle { color: #FFFFFF; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0; padding: 0; width: 100%; } .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6 .ctaButton { background-color: #7F8C8D!important; color: #2980B9; border: none; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; moz-border-radius: 3px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-height: 80px; background: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts/assets/images/simple-arrow.png)no-repeat; position: absolute; right: 0; top: 0; } .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6:hover .ctaButton { background-color: #34495E!important; } .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6 .centered-text { display: table; height: 80px; padding-left : 18px; top: 0; } .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6 .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6-content { display: table-cell; margin: 0; padding: 0; padding-right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; } .u48df161cbb9e789f98739620af7194a6:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; } READ: Slaughterhouse Five Essay PaperAt the same time I cant stand my real life, as it is always being compared to my unlimited imagination. I hope that I can one day control my two overlapping states so that I can really have the best of both worlds. My life may be different to most others, and I like to think that’s a good thing. Sadly I can only truly appreciate this difference in my own mind and not share my true identity to those that are close to me. As my condition worsens, I can only wish that I will eventually be happier to express myself – whether I’m awake or asleep.

The Dangers and Risks of Flammable and Combustible Liquids and Gases

Introduction The dangers and risks involved in handling flammable and combustible liquids and gases call for extra vigilance in the processes of packaging and transporting. Since harmful effects associated with careless handling are irreversible and long-term in nature, safety precautions must be considered.Advertising We will write a custom essay sample on The Dangers and Risks of Flammable and Combustible Liquids and Gases specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More As such, firms and governments have put standards and measures to ensure safety in the whole process of handling flammable liquids. This paper focuses on the process of storage, facilities required, risks involved, as well as some security measures that have been put in place to reduce the occurrences of disasters. Definitions The flash point, for example, is the temperature where the amount of vapor generated is enough to support combustion. On the other hand, the boiling poin t is the point where the saturated vapor pressure matches the atmospheric pressure. Flammable liquids are liquids containing more than one percent of a substance whose flash point is below 100oF. As such, combustible liquids have a flash point at, or above 100oF (National Fire Protection Association 2). The following table offers a criterion for determining the class of a particular liquid given their flash point and boiling point. Classes 1a, 1b, and 1c represent the flammable liquids; classes II and IIIa represent combustible liquids; while class IIIb is neither combustible nor flammable. Figure 1: Classes of Liquid Substances A portable tank is a closed container having a carrying capacity over 60 gallons and its design is not intended for use in a fixed status. Additionally, a pressure vessel refers to a storage compartment whose design enables it to operate at pressures above 15 p.s.i.g. Finally, a container refers to a vessel that is airtight; hence, does not allow substances to escape at ordinary temperatures.Advertising Looking for essay on business economics? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More Type of Storage Substances Storage substances belong to various categories, which determine the means for storage, transportation, as well as safety measures. According to various sources, the common types of storage substances include the following: Crude oil, LPG, Gasoline, Naphtha, Diesel Kerosene, Benzenes, and Alcohol among others as shown below. Figure 2: Common Storage Substances Storage facilities requirements Flammable and combustible liquids are stored in tanks which may vary in size and design, the NFPA provide standards for the storage of these gases, there transportation and their use. As mentioned before, these standards aim at preventing the hazards that can result from such liquids. Storage tanks Storage tanks should be made of steel or other approved nonflammable materials for underground storage. For concrete tanks, it is mandatory that a special interior lining is added, and excellent engineering practices conducted to allow for sound storage. In addition, operating pressures are not supposed to exceed that which the design allows (National Fire Protection Association 6). Underground tanks Atmospheric tanks must not exceed 2500 gallons where their original design was for underground, but for some reason, they were placed above the surface. Furthermore, it is important to avoid using them for storing liquids above their boiling points (National Fire Protection Association 12). In practice, the operating pressure must never exceed the design pressure. Surface tanks For above ground tanks, the distance between any two tanks should not be less than three feet. In case of unstable liquid, the distance to maintain between tanks must be beyond half the sum of their diameters. For liquefied petroleum gas, the distance between the LPG containers and the other liquid contain ers must exceed twenty feet (National Fire Protection Association 15). In addition, above the ground tanks require normal and emergency venting to prevent rapture or vacuum formation.Advertising We will write a custom essay sample on The Dangers and Risks of Flammable and Combustible Liquids and Gases specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More Examples of Storage Tanks Fixed roof tanks Fixed roof tanks are categorized as cone roof columns and dome roof tanks. These tanks are used for the storage of flammable liquids, and are designed with internal pressures of up to 1 bar. However, they can be used for storage of non-volatile or inflammable substances including water, pulp, and acids among others. Internal and Open-top Floating Tanks These tanks are provided with protection seals and emission control devices, which improve safety while handling flammable storage substances. Internal floating tanks are manufactured using steel, aluminum, or synthetic materials, and are easy to manufacture, erect, as well as maintain. On the other hand, external tanks are made of welded steel in order to sustain the high pressures from storage liquids. Other vessels Other than storage tanks, there exist other storage facilities such as container and portable storage facilities (National Fire Protection Association 11). However, only approved containers are used so as to maintain high levels of safety. Types of hazards and security measures An excellent plan for safety when using flammable liquids must feature some components, which include control of ignition sources, proper storage, fire control, as well as safe handling. Fire While proposing for security measures, one should first understand the causes of fires, and establish the best safety measures to follow. Ignition Sources Static electricity Formation of static electricity is dangerous since the tank can explode or a fire can start as a result of the electrostatic energy ( "UNL: Environmental Health and Safety† 20). As such, it is important to prevent static energy from producing sparks: This requires that storage containers are grounded or bonded to prevent sparking. Open flames As a regulation, storage areas are strictly nonsmoking zones because cigarette smoking is a source of open flame. Welding, lighting, and hot surfaces are also other sources of open flames (â€Å"UNL: Environmental Health and Safety† 32). Such activities must be a safe distance away from the operating environment of flammable liquids.Advertising Looking for essay on business economics? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More Electrical Spark On several occasions, sparks occur as a result of minor electrical faults such as short circuits, and may ignite other sources of energy. There are several sources of electrical spark generation such as in welding facilities, faulty electrical gadgets, and battery cells. As such, fire regulations stipulate that flammable liquids must be stored in airtight vessels that will protect flammable liquids from ignition. Suppression Systems Fire suppression systems are designed to control the spread of broken out fires. This minimizes on the destructive effects of fire since such fires are controlled and extinguished before they are fully grown. The following shows an example of fire suppression system for floating roof tanks. Figure 3: Fire Suppression systems Common Tank-type Hazards The following table shows the incidences of fire hazard with the use of various types of storage tanks. Figure 4: Common tank-Type Fire Hazards Overfill fires – Occur due to spillag es resulting from tank overfill. Vent Fires – Occur as a result of vent failure or blockages. Rim Seal Fires – Occur as a result of broken tank seals. Full Surface Fire – Occur due to surface ignition of storage liquids. Case Study Place: Delaware, USA. Date: July 17, 2001. Cause: Spark from maintenance work. Type: fixed roof. Losses: 8 injuries and 1 death. Outcome: Significant offsite environmental impact. Lesson Learned Intense procedures must be followed before conducting periodic maintenance works. Risk assessment should be conducted. Training and competence of personnel should be done. Elimination of flammable atmosphere should be done including isolation, purging, gas testing, as well as control of ignition sources. Adherence to minimum separation distances given in codes and standards. Adequate separation from tanks to site boundary, process equipment, loading areas, and buildings should be provided. Health hazards Many of these liquids are corrosiv e and undergo multiple reactions if exposed to other chemical components like oxidizing agents or when stored improperly. Therefore, people handling these liquids must be physically present and wear protective clothing (â€Å"Environmental Health and Safety Executive† 3). Eye contact with such liquids may result in a burning sensation, irritation and possibly eye damage (â€Å"UNL: Environmental Health and Safety† 10). Similarly, repeated exposures may result in target organ toxicity, which may result in the failure of such organs or death. Environmental hazards Spillages are a key pollution that threatens the ecosystem where the quantities are high enough. The liquids may result in chronic toxicity whereby they cause adverse effects on aquatic life when exposed in an aquatic ecosystem (â€Å"Environmental Protection Agency† 7). Improper disposal or accidental spillages are causes of soil and air pollution. General Use and Storage Considerations It is of paramou nt importance to understand that the handling of these liquids is not restricted to specialized firms or individuals. The substances are produce for use by the public, as well as other unspecialized individuals; therefore, safety regulations need to consider this factor (â€Å"UNL: Environmental Health and Safety† 22). In connection, protection from ignition sources is crucial during important processes like extraction, centrifuging, and grinding (â€Å"UNL: Environmental Health and Safety† 16). Conclusion As established, liquids are essential in the daily lives, but also pose a significant level of risk in people’s lives, as well as the environment. Therefore, it is important that all such risks are controlled so as to have a safe environment that is free from hazards associated with storage of liquids. In conclusion, liquids can be hazardous to both individuals and the environment; hence, it is necessary to take appropriate measures for preventing the creation of hazards. Works Cited â€Å"Environmental protection Agency (EPA).† Release: 40 CFR 302. 116.4 (2010): n.pag. California Fire Code: Chapter 27. Web. Health and Safety Executive: Storage of Flammable Liquids 2002. Web. National Fire Protection Association (NFPA): Code 30 2006. Web. â€Å"UNL: Environmental Health and Safety.† Environmental Health and Safety 402. 472  (2000): n.pag. UNL. Web. This essay on The Dangers and Risks of Flammable and Combustible Liquids and Gases was written and submitted by user Chase Robbins to help you with your own studies. You are free to use it for research and reference purposes in order to write your own paper; however, you must cite it accordingly. You can donate your paper here.